[巴菲特班] 信義(9940)的護城河不夠寬

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 信義(9940)的護城河不夠寬
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2011/12/blog-post.html

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From: GeeseHu
發表於 2011-12-6 01:47

關於信義房屋的問題，不在於他的公司好壞，
而是一家好公司她的護城河要夠寬才行
...記得巴菲特的選股要點

在台北做仲介也五六年了，
老實說，雖然信義是好公司，
但並不是買房子的人一定都跟信義買唷...
尤其是仲介是要深入經營的行業。
譬如說:文山區的信義就輸給永慶的市佔率，
而仁愛路的ERA可能強過信義就很多...
這就是因為護城河不夠寬的原因，進入門檻太低。

第二點，仲介這個行業不同於製造或是營建業，
他比較類似像貿易代理商或是像航運類股
...這樣講可能大家還不清楚，
我們收的是服務費，
所以跟建商不同，沒有所謂的庫存以及完工就列為營收這種東西，

相較之下，對仲介而言所要求的就是成交的量，
也就是行話所說的「買賣成交移轉件數」。
所以當景氣不好，外加政策做空的情況下，
少掉了投資需求的人，就減少掉了一大半的成交量
(房價漲跌對仲介其實影響不大)，
勢必對這個行業造成衝擊，
就像航運類股，你船開出去固定支出成本還是在那邊，
但是一趟下去你如果貨物不多，就是賠本。
目前仲介店頭很多都在精華地段，店租這麼高，還不含人事唷!!
所以現在為什麼很多仲介開始再放大假閒晃....

再來，大陸的投資，相信新聞看很多就不講了，
大陸仲介苦哈哈..底薪還是要給人家。
最嚴重的影響是在於仲介費當成交困難的時候，
就容易流於殺價競爭
..尤其是小品牌的仲介加盟店，1%我就活蹦亂跳，
這是大品牌所沒有的彈性
（所以其實跟永慶、信義買是比較容易貴到，
除非你像巴菲特，堅持要給自家投資的公司賺的想法啦)，
香港的仲介就是有這樣的問題，
所以人人收1%，可能早晚一天，
信義也會面臨到這種問題....毛利率驟降...

但是，雖然我現在是無業遊民...@@"..
但我還是對信義有信心的，他是一家好公司，
品牌價值是很難用計算衡量的，
而各行各業本來就會有景氣起伏的時期，
所以如果當房地產市場再度興起時..XD...
我相信投資信義就是很棒的標的了。
至少董事長是有信義的人...
還算誠實的經營團隊...^^"
...希望小小淺見能提供幫助


From: PeterKan
發表於 2011-11-26 16:56 

無論是信義或永慶，在台灣房仲的市佔率，都不超過 5%。
=> 不太對，5%是依據全台灣房屋交易量，
因為都會區委託仲介的比例較高。

http://manager.bnext.com.tw/view.php?id=41
在台北、高雄等都會區，信義房屋的市佔率大約有20%；
但以全台灣房屋交易量來看，我們只有5%。

[巴菲特班] 買回庫藏股不得超過股本之10%

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 買回庫藏股不得超過股本之10%
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2011/11/10.html

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買回庫藏股不得超過股本之10%
還原股價也把減資及買回庫藏股考慮進去

問9：買回庫藏股前股價100元，註銷後股價為何 ?
答：註銷後仍是100元，1股 x 100 = 1股 x 100

問7：股價100元，現增溢價80元，新股10%，現增後股價為何 ?
答：1 x 100 + 0.1 x 80 = 1.1 x P

問8：晶華減資72%後股價如何計算 ?
答：減資前1股 x 減資前股價108元 = 退還股本7.2元 + 減資後只剩0.28股 x 減資後股價362元　

http://www.sfb.gov.tw/Layout/main_ch/MultiMedia_FileDownload.ashx?guid=c662ca27-58e9-4545-affe-43b5bf14055f

證券交易法第二十八條之二第二項規定公司買回股份之數量比例，不得超過已發行股份總數百分之十﹙以當次預定買回數量加計公司歷次已買回尚未辦理轉讓、轉換或註銷之股份﹚。

[巴菲特班] ADR預期報酬率與貴俗價的換算

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： ADR預期報酬率與貴俗價的換算
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2011/11/adr.html

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From: 吳志峰
Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 3:40 PM

Dear mikeon:
以 rhhby 為例 1 RHHBY ADR = 1/4 of ROG 
則 rhhby 盈再表之貴俗價也是除以 4 ? 
這是一家瑞士藥廠


From: mikeon
發表於 2011-11-22 16:09

用台積電的ADR TSM去推就知道了
1股TSM = 5股台積電

盈再表按出來TSM的便宜價是250元台幣
250/30匯率 = 8.3美元...TSM的便宜價

預期報酬率191%/30 = 6%...TSM的預期報酬率

本表在碰到非美國公司時，如台灣的TSM、中國的PTR
財報數字是對的，卻是以母國貨幣計價，跟股價的美元不同。
預期報酬率與貴俗價須再除以匯率才是正解，但不用除以股數。

From: mikeon
發表於 2011-12-1 13:57 

昨天建毅桑問我，
中移動在港股及美股盈再表的預期報酬率與貴俗價有差距

在港股的俗價是68.3元人民幣
68.3 x 1.22匯率 = 83.3港幣...941的俗價

貴價是176.2元人民幣
176.2x 1.22匯率 = 215.0港幣...941的貴價

預期報酬率13% x 1.22匯率 = 16%...941的預期報酬率

在美股的俗價是359.6元人民幣
359.6/6.36匯率 = 56.5美元...CHL的俗價

貴價是989.4元人民幣
989.4/6.36匯率 = 155.6美元...CHL的貴價

預期報酬率60%/6.36匯率 = 9%...941的預期報酬率

1股941 = 1股中移動
1股CHL = 5股中移動

貴俗價的相差不大
在港股的俗價是68.3元人民幣...941的俗貴
貴價是176.2元人民幣...941的貴價

在美股的俗價是359.6元人民幣
359.6/5股 = 71.9元人民幣...CHL的俗價
貴價是989.4元人民幣
989.4/5股 = 197.9元人民幣...CHL的貴價

預期報酬率相差較大
預期報酬率13% x 1.22匯率 = 16%...941的預期報酬率
預期報酬率60%/6.36匯率 = 9%...CHL的預期報酬率

這項差距的原因是，參數有別
港股：預期ROE20%，起始NAV28.7元人民幣，
預期配息率74%，現在PER11倍

美股：預期ROE21%，起始NAV28.7元人民幣(=143.6/5股)，
預期配息率52%，現在PER10倍(=2x5股)

差在預期配息率

[巴菲特班] 選舉行情 ?

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 選舉行情 ?
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2011/11/blog-post_20.html

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上課常被問到「今年有沒有選舉行情 ?」

過去3次，2000、2004、2008年
總統大選前都大漲一波
是因為剛好碰到景氣的高點
並非政府刻意做多的結果
事實上，我也不認為政府有能力拉抬股市

今年GDP在往下走，
所以不會有選舉行情

[巴菲特班] 3Q11波克夏新增5檔持股DTV、GD、Visa、CVS、INTC

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 3Q11波克夏新增5檔持股DTV、GD、Visa、CVS、INTC
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2011/11/3q115dtvgdvisaintc.html

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3Q11波克夏新增5檔持股DTV、GD、Visa、CVS、INTC
根據CNBC猜測，是梳子買的
DTV買回庫藏股買到淨值為負

「直接電視A股(DIRECTV Class A)是數位多頻道電視娛樂、廣播衛星網路與服務供應商，在美國及拉丁美洲地區提供全球性的資訊與資料廣播服務。該公司經營領域分為兩部分：DIRECTV U.S.及DIRECTV Latin America (DTVLA)。DIRECTV Holdings LLC為子公司，提供衛星直接到府(DTH)、數位電視服務，並從事多頻道視訊節目配送。」...Quote123

「General Dynamics Corp.（通用動力公司）主要從事經營造船業和海軍系統、航空工業、資訊系統，以及陸地兩棲作戰系統。以上每一項業務涉及設計，製造和程式管理專門技術，尖端科技，和綜合系統。公司的主要顧客是美國軍隊，聯盟國軍隊，其它政府組織，以及其它工業合作夥伴。」...Quote123

「VISA operates the world's largest retail electronic payments network and is one of the most recognized global financial services brands. Visa facilitates global commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses and government entities.」...Quote123

「CVS藥物服務(CVS/Caremark)是優質的整合性藥品服務供應商，結果美國主要製藥服務公司與大型連鎖藥局。該公司每年提供或管理超過十億筆處方箋，比任何其他藥物服務供應商還要多」...Quote123

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45292794

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Adds Five New Stocks to Portfolio .. But Buffett Didn't Buy Them

Published: Monday, 14 Nov 2011 | 5:35 PM ET 
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer

We already knew, thanks to this morning's CNBC interview, that Warren Buffett has been busy buying.
He told Squawk Box that Berkshire Hathaway bought $10.7 billion of IBM [IBM 188.75 1.40 (+0.75%) ] common stock this year.
Now that Berkshire's 13-F third quarter filing is public, we know that new portfolio manager Todd Combs has also been doing some buying, although not at the same scale.
We also know that Buffett's purchases of IBM extended into the current quarter. The 13-F lists 57.3 million shares as of September 30. Buffett told us this morning that Berkshire owns 64 million shares of IBM, an increase of just under 7 million shares.

NEW POSITIONS
Berkshire reports new positions in five stocks, not counting IBM, as of the end of the third quarter. Since all of them are worth around $200 million, they were almost certainly bought by Combs. (Buffett repeated this morning that he doesn't personally deal with stakes that small.)

DIRECTV [DTV 47.08 1.45 (+3.18%) ]: 4,249,400 shares, worth $193.9 million at the close.

General Dynamics [GD 65.99 0.68 (+1.04%) ]: 3,064,422 shares, worth $200.1 million at the close.

Visa [V 95.63 1.81 (+1.93%) ]: 2,291,708 shares, worth $215.0 million at the close.

CVS Caremark [CVS 38.95 0.18 (+0.46%) ]: 5,661,000 shares, worth $219.5 million at the close.

Intel [INTC 25.34 0.71 (+2.88%) ]: 9,333,000 shares, worth $229.9 million at the close.

INCREASED STAKES
Berkshire also reports increased stakes in two other stocks:

Dollar General [DG 40.29 0.57 (+1.44%) ]: tripled stake to 4,497,247 shares, worth $178.6 million at the close.

Wells Fargo [WFC 25.29 0.19 (+0.76%) ]: increased stake by 3 percent to 361,369,808 shares, worth almost $9.1 billion at the close.

Wells Fargo is a Buffett stake. Dollar General is in the Combs portfolio.

Today's 13-F reports a 50 percent increase in shares of Torchmark [TMK 42.69 0.44 (+1.04%) ] held by Berkshire. That, however, is the result of a 3 for 2 stock split that became effective on July 5, just after the start of the third quarter. It is not the result of new buying by Berkshire.

Update: This post originally reported, based on the first 13F filing, that Berkshire had doubled its stake in Verisk Analytics [VRSK 37.71 0.47 (+1.26%) ]. On November 15, 2011, Berkshire amended its 13F to show its holdings of Verisk shares had not changed from June 30.

DECREASED STAKES
Berkshire did do some selling, with significant decreases for two stocks. The size of these holdings indicates Buffett was responsible.

Johnson & Johnson [JNJ 64.99 0.08 (+0.12%) ]: decreased stake by 12 percent to 37,446,788 shares, worth $2.4 billion.

Kraft Foods [KFT 35.48 0.05 (+0.14%) ]: decreased stake by 10 percent to 89,746,708 shares, worth $3.2 billion at the close.


From: PeterKan
發表於 2011-11-16 09:53 

手持時代，長期而言目前很多人看好ARM，不看好Intel，
持有的原因是指依財報？


From: Tevii
發表於 2011-11-16 15:03 

小弟是做衛星產品的
對Direct TV略知一二
Direct TV 算是系統運行商
大家可以把它想像成以前的東森+和信
佔有北美衛星市場的6~7成市場
第二大的是DishNetwork 約佔2~3成市場
其餘才由一些小的運行商撿食剩下的市佔率
所以這是一個寡佔市場
它所用的衛星傳輸規格還是Proprietary
小弟想要做它的產品還不得其門而入
依小弟愚見 它的護城河 既寬且深
所以不應歸類為電子科技業
只能說梳子好眼光 !!

[巴菲特班] 3Q11巴菲特買了5.5%的IBM股份

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 3Q11巴菲特買了5.5%的IBM股份
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2011/11/3q201155ibm.html

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3Q11巴菲特買了5.5%的IBM股份
以11月11日股價187.4元來算，預期報酬率29%
買得非常便宜

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45285237

What Has Warren Buffett Been Buying ? 'Harold'

Published: Monday, 14 Nov 2011 | 7:27 AM ET 
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer  

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway releases its end-of-Q3 stock portfolio snapshot later today, but during his live appearance on Squawk Box this morning Buffett revealed its big secret: Berkshire has bought $10.7 billion worth of common stock in IBM[IBM 187.38 4.03 (+2.2%) ], or 64 million shares. Buffett's company now owns 5.5 percent of the company but doesn't intend to buy any more. He started in March with the goal to buy $10 billion worth of stock.

We've noted that Berkshire's 13-F filings for the first and second quarters said that some holdings were being kept confidential, and it appears this is the buying spree Buffett was keeping under wraps. (He doesn't want copycat buyers to drive up the price of a stock he's actively acquiring.)

Buffett says he has not talked to the company or current CEO Sam Palmisano about his purchases, but he thinks IBM has done an "incredible job" executing its long-term strategy and "respects" its shareholders. He gives a lot of credit to former CEO Lou Gerstner, and wishes he'd bought the stock back when Gerstner was running the company. "It was something I should have spotted years earlier."

Buffett typically shies away from technology stocks because he often doesn't "understand" what they do, but told us he'd been "hit between the eyes" by how the company finds and keeps clients. "It's a company that helps IT departments do their job better. It is a big deal for a big company to change auditors, change law firms," or change IT support. "There is a lot of continuity to it." 

At first he gave the Squawkers a one-word puzzle: the name "Harold." After several minutes of incorrect guesses, Buffett revealed that "Harold" refers to IBM. The connection: a common nickname for Harold is Hal, HAL 9000 was the name of the computer in the 1968 movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, and it's often been associated in people's minds with IBM.

Buffett says he would never buy Microsoft [MSFT 26.91 0.63 (+2.4%) ], another computer-related stock, due to his close friendship with Chairman Bill Gates.

Buffett says Berkshire did add to its Wells Fargo [WFC 25.65 0.57 (+2.27%) ] position and he thinks Bank of America [BAC 6.21 0.18 (+2.99%) ] CEO Brian Moynihan is following a "very logical path" to fix the bank.

Asked if he supports the Occupy Wall Street movement, Buffett said because its goals and leadership are unclear it probably won't change things. He does, however, continue to believe the "super-rich" need to share in the national sacrifice that will be needed to get the federal government's budget deficits under control.


From: GaryLIN
發表於 2011-11-14 21:54

IBM近十年，轉型相當成功。
從資訊電子業，變成高毛利的服務業了。
這值得我們台灣人省思，
一直做代工，是沒有出路的。