[巴菲特班] 大原則守住，績效就不會太差

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 大原則守住，績效就不會太差
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2012/09/blog-post_9.html

--
最近看同學在討論，
常陷入細節而治絲益棼。
其實只要確實守住幾個大原則，
投資績效就不會差太多，
其它枝末旁節則可以自行斟酌

哪些是大原則：

 1. GDP高點時，不管三七二十一先減碼 1/3
若股價也變貴了再賣更多

 GDP低點時，持股比率至少 1/3
 a. 不夠便宜，小買 (5成)
 b. 遍地黃金，大買 (押滿)

 2. 不會選股請參考入圍名單

 3. 單一持股不要超過10%，
再怎麼看好最多20%

[巴菲特班] 融資的人最初都是信誓旦旦

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 融資的人最初都是信誓旦旦
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2012/08/blog-post_27.html

--
From: 歐密碼
發表於 2012-8-28 00:26

我自己的房子先前設定房貸部分是500萬，
現在還到剩下房貸200萬，
想試著在下次GDP低點時
(明年沒機會了，等2014再看看)，
把先前還掉的300萬再借出來拿到股市中投資，
因為公教利率都不高(1.8~3%)，
即使500萬本息攤還，大約4萬左右尚可負擔，
不到遍地黃金我應該也不會全押，
想說這樣應該和MIKE說的「不要融資，不要借錢玩股票」，
不太一樣吧 !?


From: mikeon
發表於 2012-8-28 07:41

每個融資的人最初都是信誓旦旦
會很小心，等低點再進場，
而且一定會停損，
都是這樣開始的

很多同學都說，
再來一次4千點一定會進來大買，
問題是買股票不是每一筆都能買在4千，
而是跌到6千時就誤以為低點，就進場了  

等跌到4千時，
融資的人早已不堪套牢或瀕於斷頭的壓力而陣亡了

[巴菲特班] 技術指標背離代表什麼意思？

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 技術指標背離代表什麼意思？
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2012/08/blog-post.html

--
今天有一位新生問我 ，
技術指標背離代表什麼意思？

技術指標設定下限為 0 ，
股價再怎麼跌，指標最低跌到 0 ，
不會變負的 ，
所以跌到後來指標就鈍化，
即所謂的技術指標背離

這是公式設定必然的道理，
而非隱含了什麼不為人知的市場轉變

只要把下限拿掉，
讓下跌可以跌到負的或無限，
就不會出現指標背離

數學不太差的人都能理解這個道理

[巴菲特班] 2012-08-13 可口可樂分割 1 股為 2 股

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 2012-08-13 可口可樂分割 1 股為 2 股
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2012/08/2012-08-13-1-2.html

--
底下貼文摘自宥聰桑的部落格
http://joechenus.pixnet.net/blog/post/39481258

2012-08-13 可口可樂分割 1 股為 2 股

分割前股數

分割後股數 (2天後資料才會更正）

Joe Chen 於 2012/8/16 下午9:14 寫道：

Dear Michael: 
分割完除息也應減半才對 
KO 上除息應該是報告未更新  
我查今年分割 OKE 報告
分割後除息從 0.61/ 股變成 0.33/ 股 

[巴菲特班] 2Q12波克夏大幅調整持股

網誌： 巴菲特班 洪瑞泰 (Michael On)
文章： 2Q12波克夏大幅調整持股
連結： http://mikeon88.blogspot.com/2012/08/2q12_14.html

--
2Q12波克夏大幅減碼 JNJ -64﹪、PG -19﹪、KFT -25﹪、INTC賣光、IR賣光、GE -26%、UPS -82%、V -27%、CVS -25﹪

增加持股 PSX、NOV、VIA.B、BK、DTV、WFC、IBM、LMCA、LEE

「National-Oilwell 是一家設計，生産和銷售機床和設備，營銷用於石油和天然氣鑽探和生産的維護，修理和運作產品。公司的機器和設備包括絞車，泥泵和電動轉環，這些都是鑽探油井氣井的鑽塔的主要機械組成部件。許多部件是專門為海洋，偏遠地區和深層地面鑽探應用而設計的。」...Quote123

「紐約銀行是一銀行控股公司和世界最大的財政機構之一。他們對全世界提供對個人、小型和中型企業、跨國公司、財政機構、政府提供全面性金融服務。其產品和服務劃分為五類: 證券服務和全球性付款服務、客戶服務和財產管理、公司銀行業務、全球性市場和零售銀行業務。」...Quote123

「李氏企業公司(LEE ENTERPRISES, INC.)是地區新聞、資產及廣告服務的主要發行業者。公司報紙的發行量達到每日160萬份，週日版更多達190萬份，每日接觸逾400萬名讀者。公司的線上網站每一吸引1200萬人次。」...Quote123

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48661464

Buffett's Berkshire Slashes Stock Holdings

Published: Tuesday, 14 Aug 2012 | 4:32 PM ET  

By: Alex Crippen

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway did a lot of selling this spring, slashing its holdings in a trio of consumer product companies.

Most notably, it reduced its holdings of Johnson & Johnson [JNJ  68.64     0.18  (+0.26%)   ] by almost 19 million shares to 10.3 million shares as of June 30.

That's a drop of 64 percent compared to its holdings just three months before.

The shares that were sold are worth almost $1.3 billion at the stock's current price, leaving a stake worth $708 million.

In another large cut reported in the company's 13-F filing with the SEC, Berkshire reduced its holdings of Procter & Gamble [PG  66.73     0.25  (+0.38%)   ] by 19 percent, or about $910 million.  It held 59.6 million shares as of the end of June.  They're currently worth $3.97 billion and are still one of Berkshire's biggest holdings.

Kraft Foods [KFT  40.90     -0.10  (-0.24%)   ] was also cut dramatically, with a 25 percent reduction worth $784 million. Berkshire's 58.8 million shares are now worth $2.4 billion. (Read More: Berkshire's Biggest Holdings)

Some other big names were also targeted, although the dollar amounts aren't as big.

Berkshire eliminated its 7.745 million share stake in Intel [INTC  26.48     -0.21  (-0.79%)   ], worth over $204 million.

It almost entirely got rid of its relatively small Ingersoll-Rand [IR  44.71    -0.32  (-0.71%)   ] holding, chopping it by 97 percent, or around $28 million.

Also cut: General Electric [GE  20.94     -0.05  (-0.24%)   ]. That stake was reduced by 36 percent to just over 5 million shares, a drop of about $58 million.

It wasn't all selling.

Berkshire added a relatively large stake now worth about $1 billion in Phillips 66 [PSX  39.93     -0.22  (-0.55%)   ]. It held 27,163,918 shares as of June 30.

National Oil Well Varco [NOV  76.26     -0.21  (-0.27%)   ] is another addition. That holding of 2.8 million shares is worth almost $216 million.

Berkshire also more than quadrupled its stake in Viacom [VIA.B  50.36     -0.16  (-0.32%)   ] to 6.8 million shares from 1.6 million. Those holdings are now worth about $335 million.

It also more than tripled its holdings of Bank of New York Mellon [BK  22.15     -0.09  (-0.4%)   ] to 18.7 million shares from 5.6 million.  That stake is now worth almost $290 million.

Berkshire also reported increases for DaVita [DVA  97.87     1.49  (+1.55%)   ], Directv [DTV  51.91     -0.19  (-0.36%)   ], Wells Fargo [WFC  33.96  ---  UNCH    ], IBM [IBM  198.29     -0.72  (-0.36%)   ], Liberty Media [LMCA  98.95     -0.34  (-0.34%)   ], and Lee Enterprises [LEE  1.33     0.02  (+1.53%)   ].

The total value of Berkshire's reported U.S. stock holdings slipped 1.3 percent to $74.3 billion as of June 30, compared to $75.3 billion.

The company's new filing does not say that any confidential information had been omitted.

ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS:

United Parcel Service, down 82 percent or $89 million. 

[UPS  76.18     0.03  (+0.04%)   ]

Visa, down 27 percent or $102 million.

[V  129.89     1.57  (+1.22%)   ]

CVS Caremark, down 25 percent or $79 million.

[CVS  44.12     -0.58  (-1.3%)   ]

Verisk Analytics, down 16 percent or $17 million.

[VRSK  49.02     0.29  (+0.6%)   ]

Dollar General, down 9 percent or $16 million.

[DG  52.31     -0.23  (-0.44%)   ]

US Bancorp, down 4 percent or $100 million.

[USB  33.02     -0.16  (-0.48%)   ]

ConocoPhillips, down 1 percent, or $13 million.

[COP  57.35     0.04  (+0.07%)   ]